Understanding Record Highs – Weekly Update

September 21, 2017 | By Steven DiGregorio

After briefly stumbling the week of September 4, domestic indexes notched significant gains last week and hit record highs. By Friday, the S&P 500 exceeded 2,500 for the first time, the Dow closed at its highest level ever, and the NASDAQ reached an intraday record. Each of the indexes gained well over 1% for the week, with the S&P 500 adding 1.58%, the Dow jumping 2.16%, and the NASDAQ increasing 1.39%. International stocks in the MSCI EAFE also performed well, with a weekly gain of 0.55%.

When looking at these sizable increases, you might expect that positive data and geopolitical calm filled the news last week. Instead, we experienced a number of occurrences that could have derailed stock performance:

· North Korea tested another missile
· London experienced a terrorist attack
· Industrial production declined in August
· Retail sales fell in August

So, why did stocks rise despite these less-than-stellar updates?

Of course, it goes without saying that the markets are incredibly complex. You can rarely, if ever, point to a single reason for their performance. Still, a few details may help put this week’s seemingly incongruous gains into perspective.

1. Investors mostly ignored North Korea and the London bombing.
Rather than running to less volatile investments after both geopolitical events, typical havens actually declined. After over a dozen North Korean missile tests and multiple London terror attacks this year, investors may simply be feeling complacent about these occurrences. Instead, many are looking to the Fed’s meeting this week as a market catalyst.

2. Weather affected industrial production and retail sales.
Hurricane Harvey likely pushed down both industrial production and retail sales in August, meaning these data-declines may be temporary. In addition, mild weather on the East Coast meant less air conditioner use—decreasing utility output for industrial production.

3. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped.
After missing expectations for five months in a row, the CPI a measure of inflation beat estimates for August. If upcoming months continue this positive performance, which the hurricanes make more likely, the Federal Reserve may be more likely to raise interest rates in December.

What is on the horizon?

Hurricanes Harvey and Irma could continue to affect economic data in the fourth quarter by driving down retail sales and increasing the Consumer Price Index. We may need to wait a few months before we can see the true trends underlying the data. For now, we will continue to track market performance and investor sentiment, and seek out accurate information amidst the hype.

In the meantime, we also want to help ensure you have the information you need to address another critical topic in the financial world: protecting your identity. With Equifax announcing that its data breach may have affected 143 million customers’ most important personal information, many Americans need to take steps to secure their accounts. To get full details on the breach and its potential impact to you go to www.equifax.com/personal. If you have questions about what steps to take next—and how to help prevent identity theft—please contact us to talk.

Monday: Housing Market Index
Tuesday: Housing Starts
Wednesday: Existing Home Sales, FOMC Meeting Announcement
Friday: PMI Composite Flash

Notes: All index returns (except S&P 500) exclude reinvested dividends, and the 5- year and 10-year returns are annualized. The total returns for the S&P 500 assume reinvestment of dividends on the last day of the month. This may account for differences between the index returns published on Morningstar.com and the index returns published elsewhere. International performance is represented by the MSCI EAFE Index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.

 

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The content of this article is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer of investment advice, investment strategy or to buy, transfer or sell any security or other investment vehicle. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but Spire Wealth Management LLC, Spire Securities LLC and their affiliates, including Compass Asset Management Group LLC, do not guarantee its accuracy. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Spire Wealth Management LLC, Spire Securities LLC or its affiliates.
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Diversification does not guarantee profit nor is it guaranteed to protect assets.

International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ. The DJIA was invented by Charles Dow back in 1896.

The Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of stocks of technology companies and growth companies.

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Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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1.  https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/15/us-stocks-weekly-gains-fed-retail.html
2. http://performance.morningstar.com/Performance/index-c/performance-return.action?t=SPX&region=usa&culture=en-US
http://performance.morningstar.com/Performance/index-c/performance-return.action?t=!DJI&region=usa&culture=en-US
http://performance.morningstar.com/Performance/index-c/performance-return.action?t=@CCO
3. https://www.msci.com/end-of-day-data-search
4. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-14/yen-jumps-after-report-of-north-korea-missile-markets-wrap
5. https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/15/us-stocks-weekly-gains-fed-retail.html
6. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-14/yen-jumps-after-report-of-north-korea-missile-markets-wrap
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/wall-street-hits-record-highs-sp-500-pierces-2500-idUSKCN1BQ1HK
7. http://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2017/9/15/industrial-production-declined-0.9percent-in-august
http://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2017/9/15/retail-sales-declined-0.2percent-in-august
8. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-14/u-s-inflation-picks-up-ending-five-month-streak-of-misses
9. http://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2017/9/15/retail-sales-declined-0.2percent-in-august
http://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2017/9/14/the-consumer-price-index-rose-0.4percent-in-august
10. http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-equifax-data-breach-0917-biz-20170915-story.html

Tags: CPI, DJIA, Dow, economy, FOMC, Housing, Hurricane, Industrial, Materials, NASDAQ, Retail, S&P 500

STEVEN M DIGREGORIO is President of Compass Asset Management Group, LLC and an Investment Advisor Representative with Spire Wealth Management, LLC.
Connect with him on LinkedIn.
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